David Cameron at Chequers Photo: DAVID ROSE
By his own admission it has been an extraordinary month for David Cameron. It was marked by the birth of his daughter Florence and the sudden death of his father Ian, events which had the unintended effect of postponing his return to the political fray after the summer break. Though he says he never really left and was “always on the grid”, those around him concede that for a while in the late summer the Conservatives deserted the battlefield and were caught out.
Mr Cameron is now back, looking fit, his energies focused on the two biggest challenges of the next month: his party’s conference in Birmingham and the spending review. When we sit down in his panelled study at Chequers, lined with political biographies and pieces of porcelain, he is clearly eager to get on. “OK, let’s go.”
It is a strangely uneasy time for the Conservatives. Their leader has been absent, and they are nervous. The Liberal Democrats have made plenty of headlines in recent weeks – a graduate tax, stopping Trident, bashing bankers – with scarcely a word from the Tories. In his first formal interview since he retreated from view, the Prime Minister wants his party to know that he has red lines that cannot be crossed. The Coalition is strong, he says, but Tories should not allow themselves to be pushed around by Vince Cable’s rabble-rousing.
He awaits the outcome later today of Labour’s interminable leadership election, but professes indifference as to which of the Miliband brothers wins. Both, he says, have got it wrong on the economy. Both were part of the government that got Britain into the titanic black hole of debt from which he is now trying to drag us, and neither has a solution to the problem. “We have this biggest deficit in Britain’s peacetime history and they seem to have no answer.” While Tories say they would have an easier time facing the self-evidently Left-wing Ed, the Prime Minister will not lose sleep if it is David, even if he is quick to assure us that he does not underestimate his opponents.
Instead, he is focused on making the case for the Government’s programme of rapid and deep action to eliminate the deficit. Already, he says, George Osborne’s emergency Budget in July has taken Britain “out of the danger zone” occupied by Spain and greece — two countries teetering on the brink of a sovereign debt crisis. Interest rates are falling, justifying the steps the Chancellor took, he says. Nick Clegg, he points out, made the case in his speech in Liverpool (one of frequent praising mentions of the Liberal Democrats).
He is anxious to reassure those Conservatives who are struggling to see anything Tory in this Coalition, and to explain to the rest of us what the cuts are all about. We know there is a lot more pain to come. Will it be worthwhile? Is there light at the end of the tunnel?
Mr Cameron knows that he and his colleagues have to use the coming weeks to explain why the pain is necessary. He speaks of taking us into his confidence, of “breaking political shibboleths” by spelling things out. He accepts that every special interest group in the land, from actors to the police, is going to complain. His job is to provide an alternative to the relentless diet of gloom. Politicians call it narrative, and in coming days we can expect the Prime Minister to explain what lies ahead. The faster we get rid of the deficit, he says, the sooner we will return to growth, the stronger the growth will be, the more jobs will be created and the faster the Government can give us something back. “There will be an ability over time once you’ve sorted out debts and deficits to give people back something from a growing economy,” he says. “I nearly said sharing the proceeds of growth there,” he laughs, knowing that his pre-crisis slogan was torn to shreds by events: now there is no growth to share. He is a realist, he says. The deficit is his main consideration. Lower taxes come second. In fact, he does not even use the term. But the sooner the deficit is dealt with, “the more likely it is over time that we may share in the success of a growing economy”. He means tax cuts, and it is a message Conservatives will want him to proclaim loudly in Birmingham.
First, though, he has to remind the country why cuts are necessary. He is too diplomatic to voice in public the rage expressed behind the scenes about the inflammatory statements from police leaders about the alleged damage that reductions in police numbers would cause, and merely urges them to avoid “alarmist” language. “But let’s not try to pretend we can’t try to get more for less.” The police, he says, are talking nonsense. But he is concerned that the anti-cuts drumbeat could undermine the public’s resolve.
He is if anything more relaxed about having the defence review debated in the media, given its national importance. On Trident he is adamant that any decision about the future of Britain’s nuclear deterrent can only be taken on the basis of military and financial need, and not political considerations. This can be taken as an answer to those Lib Dems who want a decision on Trident pushed back until after the next election to avoid a difficult Commons vote. The Coalition agreement backs the nuclear deterrent. “I will always safeguard our nuclear deterrent. I will make sure it is replaced in a timely fashion, I don’t want any gaps in our capability,” he says. “To me it is a vital insurance policy.”